The clock has struck twelve, and 2025 has arrived!
While some of us may still be shaking off the holiday fog (seriously, what is it with the black hole that happens between Christmas and New Years), the competition isnāt waiting for anyone to catch up.
If the last few weeks have taught us anything, itās that interest rates donāt care about your New Yearās resolutions. But hereās the thing about a new year: itās a fresh slate. A chance to recalibrate, refocus, and get ready for whatever wild cards the upcoming twelve months might bring us.
This yearās not going to be about waiting for the perfect rateāitās about being ready when opportunity knocks. At The Mortgage Minute, weāll do our best to help you stay ahead of the curve.
So, letās kick off 2025 with purpose. Dust off that old book of business, reach out to those borrowers, and make those goals ambitious.
Hereās to starting strong and staying readyābecause this market isnāt slowing down, and neither are we.
The New Year holiday week always brings with it the risk of random volatility, but there isnāt a lot of huge incoming data until at least January 10th with the jobs report and January 15th with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which will show us insight on inflation.
Nevertheless, take note of this past Mondayās Pending Home Sales data. With much stronger than forecasted numbers, borrowers seem to be getting off the rate watch sidelines.
That means previous purchase leads that were rate sensitive may have come around to realizing huge rate dips arenāt happening anytime soon. Give them a call before someone else does.
What to Watch:
Monday, December 30:
Pending Home Sales (November): Pending home sales increased by 2.2%, significantly beating the 0.7% that analysts forecasted. This indicates that consumers are adjusting to the higher rates, and taking advantage of the increased inventory.
Tuesday, December 31:
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (October): Home prices rose 4.5% year-over-year. New York led with the largest year-over-year increase at 7.5%, while Denver experienced the smallest annual gain at 0.2%.
Thursday, January 2:
Construction Spending (November): Construction spending is expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, indicating steady growth in the construction sector.
Friday, January 3:
ISM Manufacturing PMI (December): Forecasted at 48.3. If the number holds, it would suggest continued contraction in the manufacturing sector. Expect some volatility here as tariffs remain a wild card.
Pipeline Save of the Week
Leveraging Departing Residence Rental IncomeāWith a Catch
This weekās Pipeline Save came from a classic scenario: a borrower was looking to buy a new primary residence while keeping their current home and converting it to a rental property.
The challenge? Two home mortgages had to be calculated on the debt-to-income (DTI) ratio, which can make a tight deal derail faster than you can say āunderwriting denial.ā
But with a deep dive into Fannie Maeās rental income guidelines, the loan officer was able to turn things around and banish the underwriter back to the mortgage underworld (thatās where they live, right?).
But with Fannie Maeās Departing Residence Rental Income guideline, this deal suddenly had new life.
Hereās how it works: The borrower must secure a lease agreement and a Single-Family Comparable Rent Schedule (Form 1007). With docs in hand, now 75% of the projected gross rental income can be used to offset the principal, interest, taxes, and insurance (PITI) on the departing property.
Hereās the catch: that rental income can only offset the PITI on the departing residenceānothing else. But the good news is that as long as the 1007 is in place, even proof of the first monthās rent or security deposit isnāt needed.
With the rental income now added as part of the DTI, the ratio dropped back into approval territory. The loan closed, and the borrower is in their new home, all while staying within Fannie Maeās rules.
Pro Tip: When working with departing residence rental income, always double-check that it offsets only the PITI for that property. Misapplying it to other debts can lead to file denials, frustrated borrowers, and an underwriter that gets to say, ātold you so.ā
This save highlights why knowing the rules (and their nuances) matter. With the right strategy and attention to detail, even tricky files can turn into closed deals.
[Inventory's] Back, Back Again
After a couple of years of absolute chaos when it comes to housing inventory, it would appear the housing market is finally settling into a more balanced rhythm, as this HousingWire article highlights.
Thatās right. Inventory is back!
As we step into 2025, inventory levels are up a whopping 27% compared to this time last year, giving buyers some much needed breathing room, easing the pressure thatās defined the market since the pandemic frenzy. (You all remember the pandemic, right?)
Think back. Homes were flying off the market with dozens of offers coming in per unit within a matter of days, and buyers were throwing in bids 10% or more over asking price just to get noticed. For loan officers, the pre-approval grind was nonstop, because the offers were endless.
But now it would appear the landscape is shifting, putting buyers finally in the driverās seat.
With interest rates expected to gradually decline throughout the year (albeit not at the rate many were hoping), and a healthier inventory for buyers to choose from, itās the perfect opportunity for those who have been sitting on the sidelines.
Hereās the takeaway for mortgage brokers and loan officers as we enter the new year: get ahead of the trend.
Start calling your pipeline now to pre-sell loans and set target rates for your clients. More inventory means fewer obstacles for your borrowers and more chances for you to close deals.
Take note of these changes in the market, and be prepared to take advantage. Itās time to thrive in this new, steadier market.
Spread the News Far and Wide
While most of the mortgage world has been focused on headlines about rates, inventory, and inflation, thereās one other (very encouraging) trend of the past year that has flown under the radar: mortgage spreads are improving.
While talk about mortgage spreads is far from the flashiest topic to talk about around the proverbial water cooler, this article highlights how this subtle shift has been one of the biggest difference makers, keeping rates lower than they couldāve been which signals a healthier financial environment.
Mortgage spreads are the risk premium that lenders add to loans, and when theyāre high (like in 2023), rates climb even higher. The trend this past year is that spreads have been narrowing, which means lenders are feeling more confident about the marketās stability. Over the course of this next year, we may only see one or two quarter point drops from the Fed. But even if the Fed doesnāt cut rates as heavily as anticipated, further gains could be seen in additional improvements in risk spread premium. This is great news for loan officers! Narrowing spreads leads to lower rates, making it easier to sell loans!
While we canāt predict every twist and turn in 2025, the signs are pointing to a healthier, more stable market.
And now youāve got one more tool in your toolkit to help your borrower navigate the path to homeownership.
Letās take these positive trends for what they are: opportunities for success in the new year!
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