Happy new year!
View in browser
The Mortgage Minute email header graphic

Make Every Lead Count
Grab a FREE 30-day trial today.

2025: Chasing Goals and Closing Deals šŸ 

 

The clock has struck twelve, and 2025 has arrived!

While some of us may still be shaking off the holiday fog (seriously, what is it with the black hole that happens between Christmas and New Years), the competition isn’t waiting for anyone to catch up.

 

If the last few weeks have taught us anything, it’s that interest rates don’t care about your New Year’s resolutions. But here’s the thing about a new year: it’s a fresh slate. A chance to recalibrate, refocus, and get ready for whatever wild cards the upcoming twelve months might bring us.

 

This year’s not going to be about waiting for the perfect rate—it’s about being ready when opportunity knocks. At The Mortgage Minute, we’ll do our best to help you stay ahead of the curve.

 

So, let’s kick off 2025 with purpose. Dust off that old book of business, reach out to those borrowers, and make those goals ambitious. 

 

Here’s to starting strong and staying ready—because this market isn’t slowing down, and neither are we.

giphy-Jan-01-2025-03-37-13-0172-PM

Source: Giphy

Market Sentiment & Economic Calendar

The New Year holiday week always brings with it the risk of random volatility, but there isn’t a lot of huge incoming data until at least January 10th with the jobs report and January 15th with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which will show us insight on inflation.

 

Nevertheless, take note of this past Monday’s Pending Home Sales data. With much stronger than forecasted numbers, borrowers seem to be getting off the rate watch sidelines. 

 

That means previous purchase leads that were rate sensitive may have come around to realizing huge rate dips aren’t happening anytime soon. Give them a call before someone else does.

What to Watch:

Monday, December 30:

  • Pending Home Sales (November): Pending home sales increased by 2.2%, significantly beating the 0.7% that analysts forecasted. This indicates that consumers are adjusting to the higher rates, and taking advantage of the increased inventory.

Tuesday, December 31:

  • S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (October): Home prices rose 4.5% year-over-year. New York led with the largest year-over-year increase at 7.5%, while Denver experienced the smallest annual gain at 0.2%.

Thursday, January 2:

  • Construction Spending (November): Construction spending is expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, indicating steady growth in the construction sector.

Friday, January 3:

  • ISM Manufacturing PMI (December): Forecasted at 48.3. If the number holds, it would suggest continued contraction in the manufacturing sector. Expect some volatility here as tariffs remain a wild card.

Pipeline Save of the Week

 

Leveraging Departing Residence Rental Income—With a Catch

 

This week’s Pipeline Save came from a classic scenario: a borrower was looking to buy a new primary residence while keeping their current home and converting it to a rental property. 

 

The challenge? Two home mortgages had to be calculated on the debt-to-income (DTI) ratio, which can make a tight deal derail faster than you can say ā€œunderwriting denial.ā€ 

 

But with a deep dive into Fannie Mae’s rental income guidelines, the loan officer was able to turn things around and banish the underwriter back to the mortgage underworld (that’s where they live, right?).

giphy-Jan-01-2025-03-43-28-0661-PM

Source: Giphy

We kid, underwriters. We kid.

 

But with Fannie Mae’s Departing Residence Rental Income guideline, this deal suddenly had new life. 

 

Here’s how it works: The borrower must secure a lease agreement and a Single-Family Comparable Rent Schedule (Form 1007). With docs in hand, now 75% of the projected gross rental income can be used to offset the principal, interest, taxes, and insurance (PITI) on the departing property.

 

Here’s the catch: that rental income can only offset the PITI on the departing residence—nothing else. But the good news is that as long as the 1007 is in place, even proof of the first month’s rent or security deposit isn’t needed. 

 

With the rental income now added as part of the DTI, the ratio dropped back into approval territory. The loan closed, and the borrower is in their new home, all while staying within Fannie Mae’s rules. 


Pro Tip: When working with departing residence rental income, always double-check that it offsets only the PITI for that property. Misapplying it to other debts can lead to file denials, frustrated borrowers, and an underwriter that gets to say, ā€œtold you so.ā€ 


This save highlights why knowing the rules (and their nuances) matter. With the right strategy and attention to detail, even tricky files can turn into closed deals. 

[Inventory's] Back, Back Again

 

After a couple of years of absolute chaos when it comes to housing inventory, it would appear the housing market is finally settling into a more balanced rhythm, as this HousingWire article highlights.

 

That’s right. Inventory is back! 

 

As we step into 2025, inventory levels are up a whopping 27% compared to this time last year, giving buyers some much needed breathing room, easing the pressure that’s defined the market since the pandemic frenzy. (You all remember the pandemic, right?)

 

Think back. Homes were flying off the market with dozens of offers coming in per unit within a matter of days, and buyers were throwing in bids 10% or more over asking price just to get noticed. For loan officers, the pre-approval grind was nonstop, because the offers were endless.

 

But now it would appear the landscape is shifting, putting buyers finally in the driver’s seat.

010225 chart

Source: (Housing Wire: https://www.housingwire.com/articles/rising-inventory-is-the-most-positive-housing-market-story-in-2024/)

With interest rates expected to gradually decline throughout the year (albeit not at the rate many were hoping), and a healthier inventory for buyers to choose from, it’s the perfect opportunity for those who have been sitting on the sidelines.

 

Here’s the takeaway for mortgage brokers and loan officers as we enter the new year: get ahead of the trend. 

 

Start calling your pipeline now to pre-sell loans and set target rates for your clients. More inventory means fewer obstacles for your borrowers and more chances for you to close deals. 

 

Take note of these changes in the market, and be prepared to take advantage. It’s time to thrive in this new, steadier market.

Spread the News Far and Wide

 

While most of the mortgage world has been focused on headlines about rates, inventory, and inflation, there’s one other (very encouraging) trend of the past year that has flown under the radar: mortgage spreads are improving.

 

While talk about mortgage spreads is far from the flashiest topic to talk about around the proverbial water cooler, this article highlights how this subtle shift has been one of the biggest difference makers, keeping rates lower than they could’ve been which signals a healthier financial environment.

010225 chart 2

Source: (Housing Wire: https://www.housingwire.com/articles/housing-market-data-positive-despite-powells-grinch-act/)

Mortgage spreads are the risk premium that lenders add to loans, and when they’re high (like in 2023), rates climb even higher. The trend this past year is that spreads have been narrowing, which means lenders are feeling more confident about the market’s stability. Over the course of this next year, we may only see one or two quarter point drops from the Fed. But even if the Fed doesn’t cut rates as heavily as anticipated, further gains could be seen in additional improvements in risk spread premium. This is great news for loan officers! Narrowing spreads leads to lower rates, making it easier to sell loans!

 

While we can’t predict every twist and turn in 2025, the signs are pointing to a healthier, more stable market. 

 

And now you’ve got one more tool in your toolkit to help your borrower navigate the path to homeownership. 

 

Let’s take these positive trends for what they are: opportunities for success in the new year!

Did You Know?

Mortgage Maker is now on LinkedIn, Facebook, and Instagram! Follow us by clicking on the icons below for more news, information, articles, and commentaries on the mortgage lending industry!

šŸ“˜Please also consider subscribing to the Mortgage Maker blog as a way to continue learning, engaging, and interacting, and to elevate your mortgage lending expertise. Sign up here.

Thank you for being a part of The Mortgage Minute community. Stay tuned for next week’s insights and tips!

Facebook
LinkedIn
Instagram

Mortgage Maker, 27201 Puerta Real Suite 300, Mission Viejo, California 92691, United States, (650) 502-5002

Unsubscribe Manage preferences